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KFUM Roskilde vs VSK Århus — 3. Division 2021

KFUM Roskilde
KFUM Roskilde
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
VSK Århus
VSK Århus
10/23/20213. Division3. Division · Round 13Lillevang Idrætscenter

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

KFUM Roskilde34%
×Draw24%
VSK Århus42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

KFUM Roskilde
1.40
VSK Århus
1.59

VSK Århus creates 14% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 64 away

creates per match

KFUM Roskilde
1.44
VSK Århus
1.50

allows per match

KFUM Roskilde
1.69
VSK Århus
1.36

finishing

KFUM Roskilde+0.00on par
VSK Århus+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

KFUM Roskilde ↓

VSK Århus →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

KFUM Roskilde or draw
58%
KFUM Roskilde or VSK Århus
76%
Draw or VSK Århus
66%

Winning margin

KFUM Roskilde wins by 2+
15%
VSK Århus wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

KFUM Roskilde 1+ goals
75%
KFUM Roskilde 2+ goals
41%
KFUM Roskilde 3+ goals
17%
VSK Århus 1+ goals
80%
VSK Århus 2+ goals
47%
VSK Århus 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

KFUM Roskilde (draw refunded)
45%
VSK Århus (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

KFUM Roskilde at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.69 · 16 matches

VSK Århus away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.36 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

KFUM Roskilde attack 1.44 + VSK Århus defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.40

VSK Århus attack 1.50 + KFUM Roskilde defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

KFUM Roskilde scores more
34%
level
24%
VSK Århus scores more
42%

VSK Århus at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "VSK Århus will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: KFUM Roskilde vs VSK Århus

VSK Århus beat KFUM Roskilde 3-1 in 3. Division on October 23, 2021.

The match was played at Lillevang Idrætscenter in Roskilde.