KFUM Roskilde 3–2 Dalum: Result & Stats

KFUM Roskilde

FT

3 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Dalum

8/28/2021

3. Division · Round 5Lillevang Idrætscenter

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

KFUM Roskilde56%

×Draw22%

Dalum22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KFUM RoskildeExpected goals in this matchDalum

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.01

1.18

KFUM Roskilde

2.01

Dalum

1.18

KFUM Roskilde creates 70% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 32 away

1.44

creates per match

0.66

1.69

allows per match

2.59

creates per match

KFUM Roskilde

1.44

Dalum

0.66

allows per match

KFUM Roskilde

1.69

Dalum

2.59

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

KFUM Roskilde+0.00on par

Dalum+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

KFUM Roskilde ↓

Dalum →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

KFUM Roskilde or draw

78%

KFUM Roskilde or Dalum

78%

Draw or Dalum

44%

Winning margin

KFUM Roskilde wins by 2+

33%

Dalum wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

KFUM Roskilde 1+ goals

87%

KFUM Roskilde 2+ goals

59%

KFUM Roskilde 3+ goals

32%

Dalum 1+ goals

69%

Dalum 2+ goals

33%

Dalum 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

KFUM Roskilde (draw refunded)

72%

Dalum (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

KFUM Roskilde at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.69 · 16 matches

Dalum away — creates 0.66, concedes 2.59 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

KFUM Roskilde attack 1.44 + Dalum defence 2.59 → ÷2 → 2.01

Dalum attack 0.66 + KFUM Roskilde defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

KFUM Roskilde scores more

56%

level

22%

Dalum scores more

22%

KFUM Roskilde at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "KFUM Roskilde will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff