KFUM Oslo 6–0 Øygarden: Result & Stats

KFUM Oslo

FT

6 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Øygarden

12/7/2020

1. Division · Round 29KFUM Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

KFUM Oslo65%

×Draw18%

Øygarden17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KFUM OsloExpected goals in this matchØygarden

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.48

1.21

KFUM Oslo

2.48

Øygarden

1.21

KFUM Oslo creates 105% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 15 away

1.90

creates per match

1.33

1.08

allows per match

3.07

creates per match

KFUM Oslo

1.90

Øygarden

1.33

allows per match

KFUM Oslo

1.08

Øygarden

3.07

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

KFUM Oslo+0.00on par

Øygarden+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

KFUM Oslo ↓

Øygarden →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–18%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–04%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

50%50%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

KFUM Oslo or draw

83%

KFUM Oslo or Øygarden

82%

Draw or Øygarden

35%

Winning margin

KFUM Oslo wins by 2+

43%

Øygarden wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

KFUM Oslo 1+ goals

92%

KFUM Oslo 2+ goals

70%

KFUM Oslo 3+ goals

44%

Øygarden 1+ goals

70%

Øygarden 2+ goals

34%

Øygarden 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

KFUM Oslo (draw refunded)

79%

Øygarden (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

KFUM Oslo at home — creates 1.90, concedes 1.08 · 77 matches

Øygarden away — creates 1.33, concedes 3.07 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

KFUM Oslo attack 1.90 + Øygarden defence 3.07 → ÷2 → 2.48

Øygarden attack 1.33 + KFUM Oslo defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

KFUM Oslo scores more

65%

level

18%

Øygarden scores more

17%

KFUM Oslo at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "KFUM Oslo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff