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KFUM Oslo vs Skeid — 1. Division 2018

KFUM Oslo
KFUM Oslo
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Skeid
Skeid
11/5/20231. Division1. Division · Round 29Intility Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

KFUM Oslo59%
×Draw22%
Skeid19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

KFUM Oslo
1.94
Skeid
1.02

KFUM Oslo creates 90% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 61 away

creates per match

KFUM Oslo
1.90
Skeid
0.97

allows per match

KFUM Oslo
1.08
Skeid
1.98

finishing

KFUM Oslo+0.00on par
Skeid+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

KFUM Oslo ↓

Skeid →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

KFUM Oslo or draw
81%
KFUM Oslo or Skeid
78%
Draw or Skeid
41%

Winning margin

KFUM Oslo wins by 2+
35%
Skeid wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

KFUM Oslo 1+ goals
86%
KFUM Oslo 2+ goals
58%
KFUM Oslo 3+ goals
30%
Skeid 1+ goals
64%
Skeid 2+ goals
27%
Skeid 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

KFUM Oslo (draw refunded)
75%
Skeid (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

KFUM Oslo at home — creates 1.90, concedes 1.08 · 77 matches

Skeid away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.98 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

KFUM Oslo attack 1.90 + Skeid defence 1.98 → ÷2 → 1.94

Skeid attack 0.97 + KFUM Oslo defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

KFUM Oslo scores more
59%
level
22%
Skeid scores more
19%

KFUM Oslo at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "KFUM Oslo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: KFUM Oslo vs Skeid

KFUM Oslo beat Skeid 1-0 in 1. Division on November 5, 2023.

The match was played at Intility Arena in Oslo.