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KFUM II vs Skeid II — 3. Division - Girone 6 2020

KFUM II
KFUM II
FT
3 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Skeid II
Skeid II
8/14/20233. Division - Girone 63. Division - Girone 6 · Group 6 - 15KFUM Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

KFUM II54%
×Draw19%
Skeid II27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

KFUM II
2.50
Skeid II
1.73

KFUM II creates 45% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 19 away

creates per match

KFUM II
2.62
Skeid II
1.84

allows per match

KFUM II
1.62
Skeid II
2.37

finishing

KFUM II+0.00on par
Skeid II+0.00on par

Total goals

79%Over
  • Over79
  • Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

75%Yes
  • Yes75
  • No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

KFUM II ↓

Skeid II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–16%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
92%8%2.5
79%21%3.5
60%40%4.5
41%59%

Double chance

KFUM II or draw
73%
KFUM II or Skeid II
81%
Draw or Skeid II
46%

Winning margin

KFUM II wins by 2+
34%
Skeid II wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

KFUM II 1+ goals
92%
KFUM II 2+ goals
71%
KFUM II 3+ goals
45%
Skeid II 1+ goals
82%
Skeid II 2+ goals
52%
Skeid II 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

KFUM II (draw refunded)
67%
Skeid II (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
69%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

KFUM II at home — creates 2.62, concedes 1.62 · 13 matches

Skeid II away — creates 1.84, concedes 2.37 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

KFUM II attack 2.62 + Skeid II defence 2.37 → ÷2 → 2.50

Skeid II attack 1.84 + KFUM II defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

KFUM II scores more
54%
level
19%
Skeid II scores more
27%

KFUM II at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "KFUM II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. Division - Girone 6: KFUM II 3–2 Skeid II

KFUM II beat Skeid II 3-2 in 3. Division - Girone 6 on August 14, 2023.

The match was played at KFUM Arena in Oslo.