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KFUM II vs Mjøndalen II — 3. Division - Girone 3 2020

KFUM II
KFUM II
FT
4 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Mjøndalen II
Mjøndalen II
9/17/20243. Division - Girone 33. Division - Girone 3 · Group 3 - 21KFUM Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

KFUM II70%
×Draw16%
Mjøndalen II14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

KFUM II
2.77
Mjøndalen II
1.20

KFUM II creates 131% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 13 away

creates per match

KFUM II
2.00
Mjøndalen II
0.85

allows per match

KFUM II
1.54
Mjøndalen II
3.54

finishing

KFUM II+0.00on par
Mjøndalen II+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

KFUM II ↓

Mjøndalen II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–16%
1–24%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–05%
4–16%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
55%45%4.5
35%65%

Double chance

KFUM II or draw
86%
KFUM II or Mjøndalen II
84%
Draw or Mjøndalen II
30%

Winning margin

KFUM II wins by 2+
49%
Mjøndalen II wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

KFUM II 1+ goals
94%
KFUM II 2+ goals
76%
KFUM II 3+ goals
51%
Mjøndalen II 1+ goals
70%
Mjøndalen II 2+ goals
34%
Mjøndalen II 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

KFUM II (draw refunded)
83%
Mjøndalen II (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

KFUM II at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.54 · 13 matches

Mjøndalen II away — creates 0.85, concedes 3.54 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

KFUM II attack 2.00 + Mjøndalen II defence 3.54 → ÷2 → 2.77

Mjøndalen II attack 0.85 + KFUM II defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

KFUM II scores more
70%
level
16%
Mjøndalen II scores more
14%

KFUM II at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "KFUM II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. Division - Girone 3: KFUM II 4–0 Mjøndalen II

KFUM II beat Mjøndalen II 4-0 in 3. Division - Girone 3 on September 17, 2024.

The match was played at KFUM Arena in Oslo.