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KFUM II vs Åssiden IF — 3. Division - Girone 3 2020

KFUM II
KFUM II
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Åssiden IF
Åssiden IF
9/30/20243. Division - Girone 33. Division - Girone 3 · Group 3 - 23KFUM Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

KFUM II57%
×Draw19%
Åssiden IF23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

KFUM II
2.42
Åssiden IF
1.50

KFUM II creates 61% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 26 away

creates per match

KFUM II
2.00
Åssiden IF
1.46

allows per match

KFUM II
1.54
Åssiden IF
2.85

finishing

KFUM II+0.00on par
Åssiden IF+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

KFUM II ↓

Åssiden IF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–17%
1–25%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
54%46%4.5
35%65%

Double chance

KFUM II or draw
77%
KFUM II or Åssiden IF
81%
Draw or Åssiden IF
43%

Winning margin

KFUM II wins by 2+
36%
Åssiden IF wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

KFUM II 1+ goals
91%
KFUM II 2+ goals
69%
KFUM II 3+ goals
43%
Åssiden IF 1+ goals
78%
Åssiden IF 2+ goals
44%
Åssiden IF 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

KFUM II (draw refunded)
71%
Åssiden IF (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

KFUM II at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.54 · 13 matches

Åssiden IF away — creates 1.46, concedes 2.85 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

KFUM II attack 2.00 + Åssiden IF defence 2.85 → ÷2 → 2.42

Åssiden IF attack 1.46 + KFUM II defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

KFUM II scores more
57%
level
19%
Åssiden IF scores more
23%

KFUM II at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "KFUM II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: KFUM II vs Åssiden IF

KFUM II beat Åssiden IF 2-0 in 3. Division - Girone 3 on September 30, 2024.

The match was played at KFUM Arena in Oslo.