KFS 4–2 Vikingur Olafsiik: Result & Stats | Cup

KFS

4 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Vikingur Olafsiik

V. Þorvarðarson 90+4', 82'

E. Erlingsson 56', 35'

H. Jónsson 60'

M. Helgason 50'

6/23/2021

Cup · Round of 32Hásteinsvöllur

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

KFS40%

×Draw19%

Vikingur Olafsiik40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KFSExpected goals in this matchVikingur Olafsiik

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.33

KFS

2.33

Vikingur Olafsiik

2.33

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 3 home / 9 away

2.67

creates per match

2.33

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

KFS

2.67

Vikingur Olafsiik

2.33

allows per match

KFS

2.33

Vikingur Olafsiik

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

KFS+0.00on par

Vikingur Olafsiik+0.00on par

Total goals

Over84
Under16

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes81
No19

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

KFS ↓

Vikingur Olafsiik →

0–01%

0–12%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1–02%

1–15%

1–26%

1–35%

1–43%

2–03%

2–16%

2–27%

2–36%

2–43%

3–02%

3–15%

3–26%

3–34%

3–43%

4–01%

4–13%

4–23%

4–33%

4–41%

Most likely 2–2 (7%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

95%5%2.5

84%16%3.5

68%32%4.5

49%51%

Double chance

KFS or draw

60%

KFS or Vikingur Olafsiik

81%

Draw or Vikingur Olafsiik

60%

Winning margin

KFS wins by 2+

23%

Vikingur Olafsiik wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

KFS 1+ goals

90%

KFS 2+ goals

67%

KFS 3+ goals

41%

Vikingur Olafsiik 1+ goals

90%

Vikingur Olafsiik 2+ goals

67%

Vikingur Olafsiik 3+ goals

41%

Draw no bet

KFS (draw refunded)

50%

Vikingur Olafsiik (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

76%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

KFS at home — creates 2.67, concedes 2.33 · 3 matches

Vikingur Olafsiik away — creates 2.33, concedes 2.00 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

KFS attack 2.67 + Vikingur Olafsiik defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.33

Vikingur Olafsiik attack 2.33 + KFS defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 40%?"

KFS scores more

40%

level

19%

Vikingur Olafsiik scores more

40%

KFS at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "KFS will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

18'

H. Helgason← L. Viðarsson

35'

46'

50'

56'

60'

68'

G. Leósson← M. Theodórsson

74'

G. Thorvardarson← D. Sigmarsson

74'

V. Þorvarðarson← F. Sigurðsson

82'

V. Þorvarðarson

86'

M. Garner← G. Guðmundsson

90+4'

V. Þorvarðarson

KFS

Vikingur

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

⚽2

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: G. Thorvaldsson

18'▲H. Helgason←▼L. Viðarsson

74'▲G. Thorvardarson←▼D. Sigmarsson

74'▲V. Þorvarðarson←▼F. Sigurðsson

86'▲M. Garner←▼G. Guðmundsson

KFS substitutes

HelgasonThorvardarsonÞorvarðarsonGarnerAlfreðssonEinarssonHeimisson

Manager: G. Einarsson

46'▲E. Keke←▼B. Hafstein

68'▲G. Leósson←▼M. Theodórsson

Vikingur Olafsiik substitutes

KekeLeóssonVilhjálmssonSteinarssonThomas