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KFS vs Throttur Reykjavik — Cup 2019

KFS
KFS
FT
0 – 5
HT: 0 – 2
Throttur Reykjavik
Throttur Reykjavik
4/6/2023CupCup · 2nd RoundHelgafellsvöllur

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

KFS20%
×Draw16%
Throttur Reykjavik63%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

KFS
1.76
Throttur Reykjavik
3.09

Throttur Reykjavik creates 76% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 7 away

creates per match

KFS
2.67
Throttur Reykjavik
3.86

allows per match

KFS
2.33
Throttur Reykjavik
0.86

finishing

KFS+0.00on par
Throttur Reykjavik+0.00on par

Total goals

86%Over
  • Over86
  • Under14

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

79%Yes
  • Yes79
  • No21

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

KFS ↓

Throttur Reykjavik →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–24%
0–34%
0–43%
1
1–01%
1–14%
1–27%
1–37%
1–45%
2
2–01%
2–14%
2–26%
2–36%
2–45%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–24%
3–34%
3–43%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–22%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 81% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
86%14%3.5
70%30%4.5
51%49%

Double chance

KFS or draw
37%
KFS or Throttur Reykjavik
84%
Draw or Throttur Reykjavik
80%

Winning margin

KFS wins by 2+
9%
Throttur Reykjavik wins by 2+
44%

Team goals

KFS 1+ goals
83%
KFS 2+ goals
52%
KFS 3+ goals
26%
Throttur Reykjavik 1+ goals
95%
Throttur Reykjavik 2+ goals
81%
Throttur Reykjavik 3+ goals
58%

Draw no bet

KFS (draw refunded)
24%
Throttur Reykjavik (draw refunded)
76%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
74%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

KFS at home — creates 2.67, concedes 2.33 · 3 matches

Throttur Reykjavik away — creates 3.86, concedes 0.86 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

KFS attack 2.67 + Throttur Reykjavik defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.76

Throttur Reykjavik attack 3.86 + KFS defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 3.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

KFS scores more
20%
level
16%
Throttur Reykjavik scores more
63%

Throttur Reykjavik at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Throttur Reykjavik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cup: KFS 0–5 Throttur Reykjavik

Throttur Reykjavik beat KFS 5-0 in Cup on April 6, 2023.

The match was played at Helgafellsvöllur in Vestmannaeyjar.