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KFS vs Kría — Cup 2019

KFS
KFS
FT
4 – 0
Kría
Kría
5/1/2021CupCup · 2nd RoundTýsvöllur

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

KFS59%
×Draw17%
Kría24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

KFS
3.04
Kría
1.97

KFS creates 54% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 5 away

creates per match

KFS
2.67
Kría
1.60

allows per match

KFS
2.33
Kría
3.40

finishing

KFS+0.00on par
Kría+0.00on par

Total goals

87%Over
  • Over87
  • Under13

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

82%Yes
  • Yes82
  • No18

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

KFS ↓

Kría →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–02%
1–14%
1–24%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–02%
4–15%
4–25%
4–33%
4–42%

Most likely 2–1 (6%) · grid covers 80% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
96%4%2.5
87%13%3.5
73%27%4.5
54%46%

Double chance

KFS or draw
76%
KFS or Kría
83%
Draw or Kría
41%

Winning margin

KFS wins by 2+
39%
Kría wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

KFS 1+ goals
95%
KFS 2+ goals
80%
KFS 3+ goals
57%
Kría 1+ goals
86%
Kría 2+ goals
58%
Kría 3+ goals
31%

Draw no bet

KFS (draw refunded)
71%
Kría (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
78%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

KFS at home — creates 2.67, concedes 2.33 · 3 matches

Kría away — creates 1.60, concedes 3.40 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

KFS attack 2.67 + Kría defence 3.40 → ÷2 → 3.04

Kría attack 1.60 + KFS defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 1.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

KFS scores more
59%
level
17%
Kría scores more
24%

KFS at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "KFS will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cup: KFS 4–0 Kría

KFS beat Kría 4-0 in Cup on May 1, 2021.

The match was played at Týsvöllur in Vestmannaeyjar.