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KFG vs Vídir — 2. Deild 2026

KFG
KFG
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Vídir
Vídir
R. Thorarinsson 75'
D. Gretarsson 49'
H. Ingason 51'
6/20/20252. Deild2. Deild · Round 9Samsung völlurinn

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

KFG45%
×Draw20%
Vídir34%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

KFG
2.19
Vídir
1.89

KFG creates 16% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 13 away

creates per match

KFG
2.00
Vídir
1.38

allows per match

KFG
2.39
Vídir
2.38

finishing

KFG+0.00on par
Vídir+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Over
  • Over77
  • Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

75%Yes
  • Yes75
  • No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

KFG ↓

Vídir →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
77%23%3.5
58%42%4.5
38%62%

Double chance

KFG or draw
66%
KFG or Vídir
80%
Draw or Vídir
55%

Winning margin

KFG wins by 2+
26%
Vídir wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

KFG 1+ goals
89%
KFG 2+ goals
64%
KFG 3+ goals
37%
Vídir 1+ goals
85%
Vídir 2+ goals
56%
Vídir 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

KFG (draw refunded)
57%
Vídir (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
68%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

KFG at home — creates 2.00, concedes 2.39 · 23 matches

Vídir away — creates 1.38, concedes 2.38 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

KFG attack 2.00 + Vídir defence 2.38 → ÷2 → 2.19

Vídir attack 1.38 + KFG defence 2.39 → ÷2 → 1.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

KFG scores more
45%
level
20%
Vídir scores more
34%

KFG at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "KFG will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

49'
D. Gretarsson
51'
H. Ingason
75'
R. Thorarinsson

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

KFG 2 – 1 Vídir

KFG beat Vídir 2-1 in 2. Deild on June 20, 2025.

Goals: D. Gretarsson (49'), H. Ingason (51'), R. Thorarinsson (75').

The match was played at Samsung völlurinn in Garðabær.