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KFG vs KB — Cup 2026

KFG
KFG
FT
7 – 1
KB
KB
G. Halfdanarson 90+2', 79', 61'
J. Johannsson 88'
K. Kristjansson 71'
K. Petursson 64'
S. Jonsson 15'
E. A. Gudmundsson 11'
6/6/2020CupCup · 1st RoundSamsung völlurinn

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

KFG84%
×Draw9%
KB7%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

KFG
4.25
KB
1.25

KFG creates 240% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 3 away

creates per match

KFG
3.17
KB
0.33

allows per match

KFG
2.17
KB
5.33

finishing

KFG+0.00on par
KB+0.00on par

Total goals

90%Over
  • Over90
  • Under10

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

KFG ↓

KB →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–00%
0–11%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–02%
1–13%
1–22%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–04%
2–15%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–06%
4–18%
4–25%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 3–1 (8%) · grid covers 67% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
100%0%1.5
97%3%2.5
90%10%3.5
77%23%4.5
58%42%

Double chance

KFG or draw
93%
KFG or KB
91%
Draw or KB
16%

Winning margin

KFG wins by 2+
69%
KB wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

KFG 1+ goals
98%
KFG 2+ goals
91%
KFG 3+ goals
76%
KB 1+ goals
71%
KB 2+ goals
36%
KB 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

KFG (draw refunded)
93%
KB (draw refunded)
7%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
68%
Both score & under 3
3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

KFG at home — creates 3.17, concedes 2.17 · 6 matches

KB away — creates 0.33, concedes 5.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

KFG attack 3.17 + KB defence 5.33 → ÷2 → 4.25

KB attack 0.33 + KFG defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 84%?"

KFG scores more
84%
level
9%
KB scores more
7%

KFG at 84% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 84% does not mean "KFG will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'
E. A. Gudmundsson
15'
S. Jonsson
61'
G. Halfdanarson
64'
K. Petursson
71'
K. Kristjansson
79'
G. Halfdanarson
88'
J. Johannsson
90+2'
G. Halfdanarson

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: KFG vs KB

KFG beat KB 7-1 in Cup on June 6, 2020.

Goals: E. A. Gudmundsson (11'), S. Jonsson (15'), G. Halfdanarson (61', 79', 90+2'), K. Petursson (64'), K. Kristjansson (71'), J. Johannsson (88').

The match was played at Samsung völlurinn in Garðabær.