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KFG vs Höttur / Huginn — 2. Deild 2026

KFG
KFG
FT
2 – 5
HT: 1 – 0
Höttur / Huginn
Höttur / Huginn
T. Almarsson 85'
D. Gardarson 37' (pen)
H. Jonsson 86'
M. Fortuna Soares Sequeira Cardoso 72', 69'
D. Milenkovic 62'
R. Llop 52'
7/25/20242. Deild2. Deild · Round 14Miðgarður íþróttamiðstöð

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

KFG46%
×Draw20%
Höttur / Huginn34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

KFG
2.22
Höttur / Huginn
1.89

KFG creates 17% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 44 away

creates per match

KFG
2.12
Höttur / Huginn
1.61

allows per match

KFG
2.16
Höttur / Huginn
2.32

finishing

KFG+0.00on par
Höttur / Huginn+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Over
  • Over78
  • Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

76%Yes
  • Yes76
  • No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

KFG ↓

Höttur / Huginn →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
78%22%3.5
58%42%4.5
39%61%

Double chance

KFG or draw
66%
KFG or Höttur / Huginn
80%
Draw or Höttur / Huginn
54%

Winning margin

KFG wins by 2+
27%
Höttur / Huginn wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

KFG 1+ goals
89%
KFG 2+ goals
65%
KFG 3+ goals
38%
Höttur / Huginn 1+ goals
85%
Höttur / Huginn 2+ goals
56%
Höttur / Huginn 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

KFG (draw refunded)
58%
Höttur / Huginn (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
69%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

KFG at home — creates 2.12, concedes 2.16 · 51 matches

Höttur / Huginn away — creates 1.61, concedes 2.32 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

KFG attack 2.12 + Höttur / Huginn defence 2.32 → ÷2 → 2.22

Höttur / Huginn attack 1.61 + KFG defence 2.16 → ÷2 → 1.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

KFG scores more
46%
level
20%
Höttur / Huginn scores more
34%

KFG at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "KFG will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

37'
D. GardarsonPenalty
52'
R. Llop
62'
D. Milenkovic
69'
M. Fortuna Soares Sequeira Cardoso
72'
M. Fortuna Soares Sequeira Cardoso
85'
T. Almarsson
86'
H. Jonsson

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

2. Deild: KFG 2–5 Höttur / Huginn

Höttur / Huginn beat KFG 5-2 in 2. Deild on July 25, 2024.

Goals: D. Gardarson (37' pen), R. Llop (52'), D. Milenkovic (62'), M. Fortuna Soares Sequeira Cardoso (69', 72'), T. Almarsson (85'), H. Jonsson (86').

The match was played at Miðgarður íþróttamiðstöð in Garðabæ.