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KFG vs Fjardabyggd / Leiknir — 2. Deild 2026

KFG
KFG
FT
4 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Fjardabyggd / Leiknir
Fjardabyggd / Leiknir
D. Gardarson 63', 56', 34'
M. Olafsson 15'
E. Ragnarsson 70'
8/24/20242. Deild2. Deild · Round 19Samsung völlurinn

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

KFG45%
×Draw21%
Fjardabyggd / Leiknir34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

KFG
2.10
Fjardabyggd / Leiknir
1.82

KFG creates 15% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 50 away

creates per match

KFG
2.12
Fjardabyggd / Leiknir
1.48

allows per match

KFG
2.16
Fjardabyggd / Leiknir
2.08

finishing

KFG+0.00on par
Fjardabyggd / Leiknir+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

KFG ↓

Fjardabyggd / Leiknir →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
55%45%4.5
35%65%

Double chance

KFG or draw
66%
KFG or Fjardabyggd / Leiknir
79%
Draw or Fjardabyggd / Leiknir
55%

Winning margin

KFG wins by 2+
26%
Fjardabyggd / Leiknir wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

KFG 1+ goals
88%
KFG 2+ goals
62%
KFG 3+ goals
35%
Fjardabyggd / Leiknir 1+ goals
84%
Fjardabyggd / Leiknir 2+ goals
54%
Fjardabyggd / Leiknir 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

KFG (draw refunded)
57%
Fjardabyggd / Leiknir (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
66%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

KFG at home — creates 2.12, concedes 2.16 · 51 matches

Fjardabyggd / Leiknir away — creates 1.48, concedes 2.08 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

KFG attack 2.12 + Fjardabyggd / Leiknir defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 2.10

Fjardabyggd / Leiknir attack 1.48 + KFG defence 2.16 → ÷2 → 1.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

KFG scores more
45%
level
21%
Fjardabyggd / Leiknir scores more
34%

KFG at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "KFG will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

15'
M. Olafsson
34'
D. Gardarson
56'
D. Gardarson
63'
D. Gardarson
70'
E. Ragnarsson

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: KFG vs Fjardabyggd / Leiknir

KFG beat Fjardabyggd / Leiknir 4-1 in 2. Deild on August 24, 2024.

Goals: M. Olafsson (15'), D. Gardarson (34', 56', 63'), E. Ragnarsson (70').

The match was played at Samsung völlurinn in Garðabær.