KFG 4–1 Fjardabyggd: Result & Stats | 2. Deild

KFG

FT

4 – 1

Fjardabyggd

9/14/2019

2. Deild · Round 21Samsung völlurinn (Garðabær)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

KFG52%

×Draw21%

Fjardabyggd28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KFGExpected goals in this matchFjardabyggd

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.17

1.55

KFG

2.17

Fjardabyggd

1.55

KFG creates 40% more chances

Season form · 50 home / 43 away

2.14

creates per match

1.00

2.10

allows per match

2.19

creates per match

KFG

2.14

Fjardabyggd

1.00

allows per match

KFG

2.10

Fjardabyggd

2.19

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

KFG+0.00on par

Fjardabyggd+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes70
No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

KFG ↓

Fjardabyggd →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–23%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

88%12%2.5

72%28%3.5

51%49%4.5

31%69%

Double chance

KFG or draw

72%

KFG or Fjardabyggd

79%

Draw or Fjardabyggd

48%

Winning margin

KFG wins by 2+

31%

Fjardabyggd wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

KFG 1+ goals

89%

KFG 2+ goals

64%

KFG 3+ goals

36%

Fjardabyggd 1+ goals

79%

Fjardabyggd 2+ goals

46%

Fjardabyggd 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

KFG (draw refunded)

65%

Fjardabyggd (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

61%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

KFG at home — creates 2.14, concedes 2.10 · 50 matches

Fjardabyggd away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.19 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

KFG attack 2.14 + Fjardabyggd defence 2.19 → ÷2 → 2.17

Fjardabyggd attack 1.00 + KFG defence 2.10 → ÷2 → 1.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

KFG scores more

52%

level

21%

Fjardabyggd scores more

28%

KFG at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "KFG will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff