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KFG vs Augnablik — Cup 2019

KFG
KFG
AET
4 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Augnablik
Augnablik
4/8/2022CupCup · 1st RoundSamsung völlurinn

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

KFG27%
×Draw17%
Augnablik55%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

KFG
2.25
Augnablik
3.17

Augnablik creates 41% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 6 away

creates per match

KFG
3.17
Augnablik
4.17

allows per match

KFG
2.17
Augnablik
1.33

finishing

KFG+0.00on par
Augnablik+0.00on par

Total goals

90%Over
  • Over90
  • Under10

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

85%Yes
  • Yes85
  • No15

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

KFG ↓

Augnablik →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–00%
0–11%
0–22%
0–32%
0–42%
1
1–01%
1–13%
1–25%
1–36%
1–44%
2
2–01%
2–14%
2–26%
2–36%
2–45%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–24%
3–35%
3–44%
4
4–00%
4–12%
4–23%
4–33%
4–42%

Most likely 1–3 (6%) · grid covers 76% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
100%0%1.5
97%3%2.5
90%10%3.5
78%22%4.5
61%39%

Double chance

KFG or draw
45%
KFG or Augnablik
83%
Draw or Augnablik
73%

Winning margin

KFG wins by 2+
14%
Augnablik wins by 2+
37%

Team goals

KFG 1+ goals
89%
KFG 2+ goals
65%
KFG 3+ goals
39%
Augnablik 1+ goals
96%
Augnablik 2+ goals
82%
Augnablik 3+ goals
60%

Draw no bet

KFG (draw refunded)
33%
Augnablik (draw refunded)
67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
82%
Both score & under 3
3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

KFG at home — creates 3.17, concedes 2.17 · 6 matches

Augnablik away — creates 4.17, concedes 1.33 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

KFG attack 3.17 + Augnablik defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 2.25

Augnablik attack 4.17 + KFG defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 3.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

KFG scores more
27%
level
17%
Augnablik scores more
55%

Augnablik at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Augnablik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cup: KFG 4–2 Augnablik

KFG beat Augnablik 4-2 in Cup on April 8, 2022.

The match was played at Samsung völlurinn in Garðabær.