KFC Uerdingen 05 2–3 Union Nettetal: Result & Stats

KFC Uerdingen 05

FT

2 – 3

HT: 1 – 0

Union Nettetal

9/10/2022

Oberliga - Niederrhein · Niederrhein - 7Grotenburg-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

KFC Uerdingen 0557%

×Draw20%

Union Nettetal22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KFC Uerdingen 05Expected goals in this matchUnion Nettetal

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.21

1.32

KFC Uerdingen 05

2.21

Union Nettetal

1.32

KFC Uerdingen 05 creates 67% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 74 away

2.19

creates per match

1.34

1.30

allows per match

2.23

creates per match

KFC Uerdingen 05

2.19

Union Nettetal

1.34

allows per match

KFC Uerdingen 05

1.30

Union Nettetal

2.23

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

KFC Uerdingen 05+0.00on par

Union Nettetal+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

KFC Uerdingen 05 ↓

Union Nettetal →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–19%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

68%32%3.5

47%53%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

KFC Uerdingen 05 or draw

78%

KFC Uerdingen 05 or Union Nettetal

80%

Draw or Union Nettetal

43%

Winning margin

KFC Uerdingen 05 wins by 2+

35%

Union Nettetal wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

KFC Uerdingen 05 1+ goals

89%

KFC Uerdingen 05 2+ goals

65%

KFC Uerdingen 05 3+ goals

38%

Union Nettetal 1+ goals

73%

Union Nettetal 2+ goals

38%

Union Nettetal 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

KFC Uerdingen 05 (draw refunded)

72%

Union Nettetal (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

KFC Uerdingen 05 at home — creates 2.19, concedes 1.30 · 54 matches

Union Nettetal away — creates 1.34, concedes 2.23 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

KFC Uerdingen 05 attack 2.19 + Union Nettetal defence 2.23 → ÷2 → 2.21

Union Nettetal attack 1.34 + KFC Uerdingen 05 defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

KFC Uerdingen 05 scores more

57%

level

20%

Union Nettetal scores more

22%

KFC Uerdingen 05 at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "KFC Uerdingen 05 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff