KFC Uerdingen 05 0–0 TVD Velbert: Result & Stats

KFC Uerdingen 05

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

TVD Velbert

9/9/2023

Oberliga - Niederrhein · Niederrhein - 5Grotenburg-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

KFC Uerdingen 0555%

×Draw21%

TVD Velbert24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KFC Uerdingen 05Expected goals in this matchTVD Velbert

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.13

1.34

KFC Uerdingen 05

2.13

TVD Velbert

1.34

KFC Uerdingen 05 creates 59% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 72 away

2.19

creates per match

1.38

1.30

allows per match

2.07

creates per match

KFC Uerdingen 05

2.19

TVD Velbert

1.38

allows per match

KFC Uerdingen 05

1.30

TVD Velbert

2.07

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

KFC Uerdingen 05+0.00on par

TVD Velbert+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

KFC Uerdingen 05 ↓

TVD Velbert →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–19%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

KFC Uerdingen 05 or draw

76%

KFC Uerdingen 05 or TVD Velbert

79%

Draw or TVD Velbert

45%

Winning margin

KFC Uerdingen 05 wins by 2+

33%

TVD Velbert wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

KFC Uerdingen 05 1+ goals

88%

KFC Uerdingen 05 2+ goals

63%

KFC Uerdingen 05 3+ goals

35%

TVD Velbert 1+ goals

74%

TVD Velbert 2+ goals

39%

TVD Velbert 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

KFC Uerdingen 05 (draw refunded)

70%

TVD Velbert (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

KFC Uerdingen 05 at home — creates 2.19, concedes 1.30 · 54 matches

TVD Velbert away — creates 1.38, concedes 2.07 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

KFC Uerdingen 05 attack 2.19 + TVD Velbert defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 2.13

TVD Velbert attack 1.38 + KFC Uerdingen 05 defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

KFC Uerdingen 05 scores more

55%

level

21%

TVD Velbert scores more

24%

KFC Uerdingen 05 at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "KFC Uerdingen 05 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Niederrhein: KFC Uerdingen 05 0–0 TVD Velbert

KFC Uerdingen 05 and TVD Velbert drew 0-0 in Oberliga - Niederrhein on September 9, 2023.

The match was played at Grotenburg-Stadion in Krefeld.

KFC Uerdingen 05 vs TVD Velbert — Oberliga - Niederrhein 2020

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Oberliga - Niederrhein: KFC Uerdingen 05 0–0 TVD Velbert