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KFB vs Ægir — Cup 2019

KFB
KFB
FT
0 – 15
HT: 0 – 8
Ægir
Ægir
4/8/2022CupCup · 1st RoundOnePlus völlurinn

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

KFB1%
×Draw3%
Ægir96%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

KFB
0.85
Ægir
6.03

Ægir creates 609% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 11 away

creates per match

KFB
0.33
Ægir
3.73

allows per match

KFB
8.33
Ægir
1.36

finishing

KFB+0.00on par
Ægir+0.00on par

Total goals

95%Over
  • Over95
  • Under5

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

KFB ↓

Ægir →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–00%
0–11%
0–23%
0–36%
0–49%
1
1–00%
1–11%
1–23%
1–35%
1–48%
2
2–00%
2–10%
2–21%
2–32%
2–43%
3
3–00%
3–10%
3–20%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–4 (9%) · grid covers 47% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
100%0%1.5
99%1%2.5
95%5%3.5
85%15%4.5
69%31%

Double chance

KFB or draw
4%
KFB or Ægir
97%
Draw or Ægir
99%

Winning margin

KFB wins by 2+
0%
Ægir wins by 2+
88%

Team goals

KFB 1+ goals
57%
KFB 2+ goals
21%
KFB 3+ goals
5%
Ægir 1+ goals
100%
Ægir 2+ goals
97%
Ægir 3+ goals
90%

Draw no bet

KFB (draw refunded)
1%
Ægir (draw refunded)
99%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
1%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

KFB at home — creates 0.33, concedes 8.33 · 3 matches

Ægir away — creates 3.73, concedes 1.36 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

KFB attack 0.33 + Ægir defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 0.85

Ægir attack 3.73 + KFB defence 8.33 → ÷2 → 6.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 96%?"

KFB scores more
1%
level
3%
Ægir scores more
96%

Ægir at 96% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 96% does not mean "Ægir will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

KFB 0 – 15 Ægir

Ægir beat KFB 15-0 in Cup on April 8, 2022.

The match was played at OnePlus völlurinn in Álftanes.