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KF vs Völsungur — 2. Deild 2018

KF
KF
FT
3 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Völsungur
Völsungur
Sito 61'
A. DeFreitas 29'
M. Birgisson 22'
J. Guardia Hermida 90+4'
P. Palmason 27'
8/25/20232. Deild2. Deild · Round 19Ólafsfjarðarvöllur

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

KF46%
×Draw22%
Völsungur32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

KF
1.88
Völsungur
1.55

KF creates 21% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 76 away

creates per match

KF
1.82
Völsungur
1.57

allows per match

KF
1.53
Völsungur
1.93

finishing

KF+0.00on par
Völsungur+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

KF ↓

Völsungur →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
66%34%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

KF or draw
68%
KF or Völsungur
78%
Draw or Völsungur
54%

Winning margin

KF wins by 2+
25%
Völsungur wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

KF 1+ goals
85%
KF 2+ goals
56%
KF 3+ goals
29%
Völsungur 1+ goals
79%
Völsungur 2+ goals
46%
Völsungur 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

KF (draw refunded)
59%
Völsungur (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

KF at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.53 · 57 matches

Völsungur away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.93 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

KF attack 1.82 + Völsungur defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.88

Völsungur attack 1.57 + KF defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

KF scores more
46%
level
22%
Völsungur scores more
32%

KF at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "KF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

22'
M. Birgisson
27'
P. Palmason
29'
A. DeFreitas
61'
Sito
90+4'
J. Guardia Hermida

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: KF vs Völsungur

KF beat Völsungur 3-2 in 2. Deild on August 25, 2023.

Goals: M. Birgisson (22'), P. Palmason (27'), A. DeFreitas (29'), Sito (61'), J. Guardia Hermida (90+4').

The match was played at Ólafsfjarðarvöllur in Ólafsfjörður.