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KF vs Tindastóll — Cup 2019

KF
KF
FT
3 – 5
HT: 0 – 3
Tindastóll
Tindastóll
3/29/2025CupCup · 1st RoundDalvíkurvöllur

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

KF31%
×Draw18%
Tindastóll51%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

KF
2.17
Tindastóll
2.79

Tindastóll creates 29% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 6 away

creates per match

KF
1.00
Tindastóll
2.33

allows per match

KF
3.25
Tindastóll
3.33

finishing

KF+0.00on par
Tindastóll+0.00on par

Total goals

87%Over
  • Over87
  • Under13

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

83%Yes
  • Yes83
  • No17

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

KF ↓

Tindastóll →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–23%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–02%
1–14%
1–26%
1–36%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–27%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–25%
3–34%
3–43%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–23%
4–32%
4–42%

Most likely 2–2 (7%) · grid covers 82% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
96%4%2.5
87%13%3.5
72%28%4.5
54%46%

Double chance

KF or draw
49%
KF or Tindastóll
82%
Draw or Tindastóll
69%

Winning margin

KF wins by 2+
16%
Tindastóll wins by 2+
32%

Team goals

KF 1+ goals
89%
KF 2+ goals
64%
KF 3+ goals
36%
Tindastóll 1+ goals
94%
Tindastóll 2+ goals
76%
Tindastóll 3+ goals
52%

Draw no bet

KF (draw refunded)
38%
Tindastóll (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
79%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

KF at home — creates 1.00, concedes 3.25 · 4 matches

Tindastóll away — creates 2.33, concedes 3.33 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

KF attack 1.00 + Tindastóll defence 3.33 → ÷2 → 2.17

Tindastóll attack 2.33 + KF defence 3.25 → ÷2 → 2.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

KF scores more
31%
level
18%
Tindastóll scores more
51%

Tindastóll at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Tindastóll will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cup: KF 3–5 Tindastóll

Tindastóll beat KF 5-3 in Cup on March 29, 2025.

The match was played at Dalvíkurvöllur in Dalvík.