KF 1–1 Throttur Reykjavik: Result & Stats

KF

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Throttur Reykjavik

S. Gylfason 31'

K. Yaroshenko 90'

5/28/2022

2. Deild · Round 4Dalvíkurvöllur

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

KF34%

×Draw24%

Throttur Reykjavik42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KFExpected goals in this matchThrottur Reykjavik

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

1.63

KF

1.46

Throttur Reykjavik

1.63

Throttur Reykjavik creates 12% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 11 away

1.82

creates per match

1.73

1.53

allows per match

1.09

creates per match

KF

1.82

Throttur Reykjavik

1.73

allows per match

KF

1.53

Throttur Reykjavik

1.09

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

KF+0.00on par

Throttur Reykjavik+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

KF ↓

Throttur Reykjavik →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

KF or draw

58%

KF or Throttur Reykjavik

76%

Draw or Throttur Reykjavik

66%

Winning margin

KF wins by 2+

16%

Throttur Reykjavik wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

KF 1+ goals

77%

KF 2+ goals

43%

KF 3+ goals

18%

Throttur Reykjavik 1+ goals

80%

Throttur Reykjavik 2+ goals

48%

Throttur Reykjavik 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

KF (draw refunded)

45%

Throttur Reykjavik (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

KF at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.53 · 57 matches

Throttur Reykjavik away — creates 1.73, concedes 1.09 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

KF attack 1.82 + Throttur Reykjavik defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.46

Throttur Reykjavik attack 1.73 + KF defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

KF scores more

34%

level

24%

Throttur Reykjavik scores more

42%

Throttur Reykjavik at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Throttur Reykjavik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

31'

S. Gylfason

90'

K. Yaroshenko

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff