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KF vs KV — 2. Deild 2018

KF
KF
FT
1 – 0
KV
KV
8/27/20162. Deild2. Deild · Round 18Ólafsfjarðarvöllur (Ólafsfjörður)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

KF52%
×Draw22%
KV26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

KF
1.93
KV
1.29

KF creates 50% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 24 away

creates per match

KF
1.82
KV
1.04

allows per match

KF
1.53
KV
2.04

finishing

KF+0.00on par
KV+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

KF ↓

KV →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

KF or draw
74%
KF or KV
78%
Draw or KV
48%

Winning margin

KF wins by 2+
30%
KV wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

KF 1+ goals
85%
KF 2+ goals
57%
KF 3+ goals
30%
KV 1+ goals
72%
KV 2+ goals
37%
KV 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

KF (draw refunded)
67%
KV (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

KF at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.53 · 57 matches

KV away — creates 1.04, concedes 2.04 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

KF attack 1.82 + KV defence 2.04 → ÷2 → 1.93

KV attack 1.04 + KF defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

KF scores more
52%
level
22%
KV scores more
26%

KF at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "KF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

2. Deild: KF 1–0 KV

KF beat KV 1-0 in 2. Deild on August 27, 2016.

The match was played at Ólafsfjarðarvöllur (Ólafsfjörður).