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KF vs Kórdrengir — 2. Deild 2018

KF
KF
FT
0 – 1
Kórdrengir
Kórdrengir
9/9/20202. Deild2. Deild · Round 10Ólafsfjarðarvöllur

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

KF26%
×Draw23%
Kórdrengir51%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

KF
1.21
Kórdrengir
1.81

Kórdrengir creates 50% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 10 away

creates per match

KF
1.82
Kórdrengir
2.10

allows per match

KF
1.53
Kórdrengir
0.60

finishing

KF+0.00on par
Kórdrengir+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

KF ↓

Kórdrengir →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–28%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

KF or draw
49%
KF or Kórdrengir
77%
Draw or Kórdrengir
74%

Winning margin

KF wins by 2+
10%
Kórdrengir wins by 2+
29%

Team goals

KF 1+ goals
70%
KF 2+ goals
34%
KF 3+ goals
12%
Kórdrengir 1+ goals
84%
Kórdrengir 2+ goals
54%
Kórdrengir 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

KF (draw refunded)
33%
Kórdrengir (draw refunded)
67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

KF at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.53 · 57 matches

Kórdrengir away — creates 2.10, concedes 0.60 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

KF attack 1.82 + Kórdrengir defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 1.21

Kórdrengir attack 2.10 + KF defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

KF scores more
26%
level
23%
Kórdrengir scores more
51%

Kórdrengir at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Kórdrengir will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: KF vs Kórdrengir

Kórdrengir beat KF 1-0 in 2. Deild on September 9, 2020.

The match was played at Ólafsfjarðarvöllur in Ólafsfjörður.