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KF vs Haukar — 2. Deild 2018

KF
KF
FT
2 – 1
Haukar
Haukar
7/8/20232. Deild2. Deild · Round 11Ólafsfjarðarvöllur

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

KF42%
×Draw23%
Haukar35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

KF
1.78
Haukar
1.60

KF creates 11% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 71 away

creates per match

KF
1.87
Haukar
1.69

allows per match

KF
1.51
Haukar
1.69

finishing

KF+0.00on par
Haukar+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

KF ↓

Haukar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

KF or draw
65%
KF or Haukar
77%
Draw or Haukar
58%

Winning margin

KF wins by 2+
22%
Haukar wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

KF 1+ goals
83%
KF 2+ goals
53%
KF 3+ goals
26%
Haukar 1+ goals
80%
Haukar 2+ goals
47%
Haukar 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

KF (draw refunded)
55%
Haukar (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

KF at home — creates 1.87, concedes 1.51 · 55 matches

Haukar away — creates 1.69, concedes 1.69 · 71 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

KF attack 1.87 + Haukar defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.78

Haukar attack 1.69 + KF defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

KF scores more
42%
level
23%
Haukar scores more
35%

KF at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "KF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

2. Deild: KF 2–1 Haukar

KF beat Haukar 2-1 in 2. Deild on July 8, 2023.

The match was played at Ólafsfjarðarvöllur in Ólafsfjörður.