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KF vs Ægir — 2. Deild 2018

KF
KF
FT
1 – 1
Ægir
Ægir
9/11/20162. Deild2. Deild · Round 20Ólafsfjarðarvöllur (Ólafsfjörður)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

KF44%
×Draw22%
Ægir34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

KF
1.85
Ægir
1.61

KF creates 15% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 35 away

creates per match

KF
1.82
Ægir
1.69

allows per match

KF
1.53
Ægir
1.89

finishing

KF+0.00on par
Ægir+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

KF ↓

Ægir →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

KF or draw
66%
KF or Ægir
78%
Draw or Ægir
56%

Winning margin

KF wins by 2+
24%
Ægir wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

KF 1+ goals
84%
KF 2+ goals
55%
KF 3+ goals
28%
Ægir 1+ goals
80%
Ægir 2+ goals
48%
Ægir 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

KF (draw refunded)
56%
Ægir (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

KF at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.53 · 57 matches

Ægir away — creates 1.69, concedes 1.89 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

KF attack 1.82 + Ægir defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.85

Ægir attack 1.69 + KF defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

KF scores more
44%
level
22%
Ægir scores more
34%

KF at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "KF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: KF vs Ægir

KF and Ægir drew 1-1 in 2. Deild on September 11, 2016.

The match was played at Ólafsfjarðarvöllur (Ólafsfjörður).