KF Gostivari 1–1 Vardar Skopje: Result & Stats

KF Gostivari

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Vardar Skopje

2/17/2024

First League · Round 19Stadiumi i qytetit

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

KF Gostivari40%

×Draw29%

Vardar Skopje31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KF GostivariExpected goals in this matchVardar Skopje

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.20

1.02

KF Gostivari

1.20

Vardar Skopje

1.02

KF Gostivari creates 18% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 78 away

1.27

creates per match

1.14

0.91

allows per match

1.13

creates per match

KF Gostivari

1.27

Vardar Skopje

1.14

allows per match

KF Gostivari

0.91

Vardar Skopje

1.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

KF Gostivari+0.00on par

Vardar Skopje+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

KF Gostivari ↓

Vardar Skopje →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

KF Gostivari or draw

69%

KF Gostivari or Vardar Skopje

71%

Draw or Vardar Skopje

60%

Winning margin

KF Gostivari wins by 2+

17%

Vardar Skopje wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

KF Gostivari 1+ goals

70%

KF Gostivari 2+ goals

34%

KF Gostivari 3+ goals

12%

Vardar Skopje 1+ goals

64%

Vardar Skopje 2+ goals

27%

Vardar Skopje 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

KF Gostivari (draw refunded)

56%

Vardar Skopje (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

KF Gostivari at home — creates 1.27, concedes 0.91 · 33 matches

Vardar Skopje away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.13 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

KF Gostivari attack 1.27 + Vardar Skopje defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.20

Vardar Skopje attack 1.14 + KF Gostivari defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

KF Gostivari scores more

40%

level

29%

Vardar Skopje scores more

31%

KF Gostivari at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "KF Gostivari will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff