KF Gostivari 1–0 Vardar Skopje: Result & Stats

KF Gostivari

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Vardar Skopje

10/23/2022

Second League · Round 9Igralište Golema Rečica

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

KF Gostivari41%

×Draw27%

Vardar Skopje32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KF GostivariExpected goals in this matchVardar Skopje

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

1.16

KF Gostivari

1.35

Vardar Skopje

1.16

KF Gostivari creates 16% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 15 away

1.83

creates per match

1.60

0.72

allows per match

0.87

creates per match

KF Gostivari

1.83

Vardar Skopje

1.60

allows per match

KF Gostivari

0.72

Vardar Skopje

0.87

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

KF Gostivari+0.00on par

Vardar Skopje+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

KF Gostivari ↓

Vardar Skopje →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

KF Gostivari or draw

68%

KF Gostivari or Vardar Skopje

73%

Draw or Vardar Skopje

59%

Winning margin

KF Gostivari wins by 2+

19%

Vardar Skopje wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

KF Gostivari 1+ goals

74%

KF Gostivari 2+ goals

39%

KF Gostivari 3+ goals

15%

Vardar Skopje 1+ goals

69%

Vardar Skopje 2+ goals

32%

Vardar Skopje 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

KF Gostivari (draw refunded)

56%

Vardar Skopje (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

KF Gostivari at home — creates 1.83, concedes 0.72 · 36 matches

Vardar Skopje away — creates 1.60, concedes 0.87 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

KF Gostivari attack 1.83 + Vardar Skopje defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 1.35

Vardar Skopje attack 1.60 + KF Gostivari defence 0.72 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

KF Gostivari scores more

41%

level

27%

Vardar Skopje scores more

32%

KF Gostivari at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "KF Gostivari will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff