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KF Gostivari vs Vardar Forino — Second League 2019

KF Gostivari
KF Gostivari
FT
1 – 0
Vardar Forino
Vardar Forino
10/17/2020Second LeagueSecond League · West - 8Stadiumi i qytetit

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

KF Gostivari64%
×Draw22%
Vardar Forino13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

KF Gostivari
1.81
Vardar Forino
0.68

KF Gostivari creates 166% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 16 away

creates per match

KF Gostivari
1.81
Vardar Forino
0.63

allows per match

KF Gostivari
0.73
Vardar Forino
1.81

finishing

KF Gostivari+0.00on par
Vardar Forino+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

KF Gostivari ↓

Vardar Forino →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–16%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–110%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

KF Gostivari or draw
87%
KF Gostivari or Vardar Forino
78%
Draw or Vardar Forino
36%

Winning margin

KF Gostivari wins by 2+
38%
Vardar Forino wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

KF Gostivari 1+ goals
84%
KF Gostivari 2+ goals
54%
KF Gostivari 3+ goals
27%
Vardar Forino 1+ goals
49%
Vardar Forino 2+ goals
15%
Vardar Forino 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

KF Gostivari (draw refunded)
83%
Vardar Forino (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

KF Gostivari at home — creates 1.81, concedes 0.73 · 37 matches

Vardar Forino away — creates 0.63, concedes 1.81 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

KF Gostivari attack 1.81 + Vardar Forino defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.81

Vardar Forino attack 0.63 + KF Gostivari defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

KF Gostivari scores more
64%
level
22%
Vardar Forino scores more
13%

KF Gostivari at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "KF Gostivari will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: KF Gostivari vs Vardar Forino

KF Gostivari beat Vardar Forino 1-0 in Second League on October 17, 2020.

The match was played at Stadiumi i qytetit in Gostivar.