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KF Gostivari vs Tikveš — First League 2019

KF Gostivari
KF Gostivari
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Tikveš
Tikveš
11/24/2024First LeagueFirst League · Round 15Stadion Boris Trajkovski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

KF Gostivari45%
×Draw28%
Tikveš27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

KF Gostivari
1.34
Tikveš
0.98

KF Gostivari creates 37% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 80 away

creates per match

KF Gostivari
1.27
Tikveš
1.05

allows per match

KF Gostivari
0.91
Tikveš
1.41

finishing

KF Gostivari+0.00on par
Tikveš+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

KF Gostivari ↓

Tikveš →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

KF Gostivari or draw
73%
KF Gostivari or Tikveš
72%
Draw or Tikveš
55%

Winning margin

KF Gostivari wins by 2+
21%
Tikveš wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

KF Gostivari 1+ goals
74%
KF Gostivari 2+ goals
39%
KF Gostivari 3+ goals
15%
Tikveš 1+ goals
62%
Tikveš 2+ goals
26%
Tikveš 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

KF Gostivari (draw refunded)
62%
Tikveš (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

KF Gostivari at home — creates 1.27, concedes 0.91 · 33 matches

Tikveš away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.41 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

KF Gostivari attack 1.27 + Tikveš defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.34

Tikveš attack 1.05 + KF Gostivari defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

KF Gostivari scores more
45%
level
28%
Tikveš scores more
27%

KF Gostivari at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "KF Gostivari will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: KF Gostivari vs Tikveš

KF Gostivari beat Tikveš 1-0 in First League on November 24, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Boris Trajkovski in Skopje.