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KF Gostivari vs Sloga Vinica — Second League 2019

KF Gostivari
KF Gostivari
FT
5 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Sloga Vinica
Sloga Vinica
3/18/2023Second LeagueSecond League · Round 21Stadiumi i qytetit

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

KF Gostivari65%
×Draw21%
Sloga Vinica14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

KF Gostivari
1.93
Sloga Vinica
0.74

KF Gostivari creates 161% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 44 away

creates per match

KF Gostivari
1.83
Sloga Vinica
0.77

allows per match

KF Gostivari
0.72
Sloga Vinica
2.02

finishing

KF Gostivari+0.00on par
Sloga Vinica+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

KF Gostivari ↓

Sloga Vinica →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–15%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

KF Gostivari or draw
86%
KF Gostivari or Sloga Vinica
79%
Draw or Sloga Vinica
35%

Winning margin

KF Gostivari wins by 2+
40%
Sloga Vinica wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

KF Gostivari 1+ goals
85%
KF Gostivari 2+ goals
57%
KF Gostivari 3+ goals
30%
Sloga Vinica 1+ goals
52%
Sloga Vinica 2+ goals
17%
Sloga Vinica 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

KF Gostivari (draw refunded)
83%
Sloga Vinica (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

KF Gostivari at home — creates 1.83, concedes 0.72 · 36 matches

Sloga Vinica away — creates 0.77, concedes 2.02 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

KF Gostivari attack 1.83 + Sloga Vinica defence 2.02 → ÷2 → 1.93

Sloga Vinica attack 0.77 + KF Gostivari defence 0.72 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

KF Gostivari scores more
65%
level
21%
Sloga Vinica scores more
14%

KF Gostivari at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "KF Gostivari will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League: KF Gostivari 5–0 Sloga Vinica

KF Gostivari beat Sloga Vinica 5-0 in Second League on March 18, 2023.

The match was played at Stadiumi i qytetit in Gostivar.