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KF Gostivari vs Labunishta — Second League 2019

KF Gostivari
KF Gostivari
FT
2 – 1
Labunishta
Labunishta
3/8/2020Second LeagueSecond League · West - 16Stadiumi i qytetit

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

KF Gostivari60%
×Draw25%
Labunishta14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

KF Gostivari
1.56
Labunishta
0.61

KF Gostivari creates 156% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 22 away

creates per match

KF Gostivari
1.81
Labunishta
0.50

allows per match

KF Gostivari
0.73
Labunishta
1.32

finishing

KF Gostivari+0.00on par
Labunishta+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

KF Gostivari ↓

Labunishta →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–17%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–111%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

KF Gostivari or draw
86%
KF Gostivari or Labunishta
75%
Draw or Labunishta
40%

Winning margin

KF Gostivari wins by 2+
33%
Labunishta wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

KF Gostivari 1+ goals
79%
KF Gostivari 2+ goals
46%
KF Gostivari 3+ goals
21%
Labunishta 1+ goals
46%
Labunishta 2+ goals
13%
Labunishta 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

KF Gostivari (draw refunded)
81%
Labunishta (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

KF Gostivari at home — creates 1.81, concedes 0.73 · 37 matches

Labunishta away — creates 0.50, concedes 1.32 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

KF Gostivari attack 1.81 + Labunishta defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.56

Labunishta attack 0.50 + KF Gostivari defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

KF Gostivari scores more
60%
level
25%
Labunishta scores more
14%

KF Gostivari at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "KF Gostivari will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League: KF Gostivari 2–1 Labunishta

KF Gostivari beat Labunishta 2-1 in Second League on March 8, 2020.

The match was played at Stadiumi i qytetit in Gostivar.