KF Gostivari 5–1 Kozuv Gevgelija: Result & Stats

KF Gostivari

FT

5 – 1

Kozuv Gevgelija

4/23/2023

Second League · Round 25Stadiumi i qytetit

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

KF Gostivari55%

×Draw25%

Kozuv Gevgelija19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KF GostivariExpected goals in this matchKozuv Gevgelija

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

0.80

KF Gostivari

1.56

Kozuv Gevgelija

0.80

KF Gostivari creates 95% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 81 away

1.83

creates per match

0.89

0.72

allows per match

1.30

creates per match

KF Gostivari

1.83

Kozuv Gevgelija

0.89

allows per match

KF Gostivari

0.72

Kozuv Gevgelija

1.30

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

KF Gostivari+0.00on par

Kozuv Gevgelija+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

KF Gostivari ↓

Kozuv Gevgelija →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

KF Gostivari or draw

81%

KF Gostivari or Kozuv Gevgelija

75%

Draw or Kozuv Gevgelija

45%

Winning margin

KF Gostivari wins by 2+

29%

Kozuv Gevgelija wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

KF Gostivari 1+ goals

79%

KF Gostivari 2+ goals

46%

KF Gostivari 3+ goals

21%

Kozuv Gevgelija 1+ goals

55%

Kozuv Gevgelija 2+ goals

19%

Kozuv Gevgelija 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

KF Gostivari (draw refunded)

74%

Kozuv Gevgelija (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

KF Gostivari at home — creates 1.83, concedes 0.72 · 36 matches

Kozuv Gevgelija away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.30 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

KF Gostivari attack 1.83 + Kozuv Gevgelija defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.56

Kozuv Gevgelija attack 0.89 + KF Gostivari defence 0.72 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

KF Gostivari scores more

55%

level

25%

Kozuv Gevgelija scores more

19%

KF Gostivari at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "KF Gostivari will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff