KF Gostivari 1–1 Detonit Plachkovica

KF Gostivari

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Detonit Plachkovica

11/26/2022

Second League · Round 13Stadiumi i qytetit

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

KF Gostivari48%

×Draw26%

Detonit Plachkovica26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KF GostivariExpected goals in this matchDetonit Plachkovica

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.49

1.02

KF Gostivari

1.49

Detonit Plachkovica

1.02

KF Gostivari creates 46% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 60 away

1.83

creates per match

1.33

0.72

allows per match

1.15

creates per match

KF Gostivari

1.83

Detonit Plachkovica

1.33

allows per match

KF Gostivari

0.72

Detonit Plachkovica

1.15

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

KF Gostivari+0.00on par

Detonit Plachkovica+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

KF Gostivari ↓

Detonit Plachkovica →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

KF Gostivari or draw

74%

KF Gostivari or Detonit Plachkovica

74%

Draw or Detonit Plachkovica

52%

Winning margin

KF Gostivari wins by 2+

24%

Detonit Plachkovica wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

KF Gostivari 1+ goals

77%

KF Gostivari 2+ goals

44%

KF Gostivari 3+ goals

19%

Detonit Plachkovica 1+ goals

64%

Detonit Plachkovica 2+ goals

27%

Detonit Plachkovica 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

KF Gostivari (draw refunded)

65%

Detonit Plachkovica (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

KF Gostivari at home — creates 1.83, concedes 0.72 · 36 matches

Detonit Plachkovica away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.15 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

KF Gostivari attack 1.83 + Detonit Plachkovica defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.49

Detonit Plachkovica attack 1.33 + KF Gostivari defence 0.72 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

KF Gostivari scores more

48%

level

26%

Detonit Plachkovica scores more

26%

KF Gostivari at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "KF Gostivari will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff