KF Gostivari 2–0 Aresimi: Result & Stats

KF Gostivari

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Aresimi

11/5/2022

Second League · Round 11Stadiumi i qytetit

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

KF Gostivari47%

×Draw25%

Aresimi27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KF GostivariExpected goals in this matchAresimi

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

1.10

KF Gostivari

1.54

Aresimi

1.10

KF Gostivari creates 40% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 45 away

1.83

creates per match

1.49

0.72

allows per match

1.24

creates per match

KF Gostivari

1.83

Aresimi

1.49

allows per match

KF Gostivari

0.72

Aresimi

1.24

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

KF Gostivari+0.00on par

Aresimi+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

KF Gostivari ↓

Aresimi →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

KF Gostivari or draw

73%

KF Gostivari or Aresimi

75%

Draw or Aresimi

53%

Winning margin

KF Gostivari wins by 2+

24%

Aresimi wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

KF Gostivari 1+ goals

79%

KF Gostivari 2+ goals

45%

KF Gostivari 3+ goals

20%

Aresimi 1+ goals

67%

Aresimi 2+ goals

30%

Aresimi 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

KF Gostivari (draw refunded)

64%

Aresimi (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

KF Gostivari at home — creates 1.83, concedes 0.72 · 36 matches

Aresimi away — creates 1.49, concedes 1.24 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

KF Gostivari attack 1.83 + Aresimi defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.54

Aresimi attack 1.49 + KF Gostivari defence 0.72 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

KF Gostivari scores more

47%

level

25%

Aresimi scores more

27%

KF Gostivari at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "KF Gostivari will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff