Keynsham Town W 3–5 Plymouth Argyle W

Keynsham Town W

3 – 5

Plymouth Argyle W

11/14/2021

FA Women's Cup · 1st RoundThe AJN Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Keynsham Town W37%

×Draw23%

Plymouth Argyle W41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Keynsham Town WExpected goals in this matchPlymouth Argyle W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.65

1.75

Keynsham Town W

1.65

Plymouth Argyle W

1.75

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 5 home / 7 away

1.00

creates per match

1.71

1.80

allows per match

2.29

creates per match

Keynsham Town W

1.00

Plymouth Argyle W

1.71

allows per match

Keynsham Town W

1.80

Plymouth Argyle W

2.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Keynsham Town W+0.00on par

Plymouth Argyle W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Keynsham Town W ↓

Plymouth Argyle W →

0–03%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1–06%

1–110%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3–03%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Keynsham Town W or draw

59%

Keynsham Town W or Plymouth Argyle W

77%

Draw or Plymouth Argyle W

63%

Winning margin

Keynsham Town W wins by 2+

18%

Plymouth Argyle W wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Keynsham Town W 1+ goals

81%

Keynsham Town W 2+ goals

49%

Keynsham Town W 3+ goals

23%

Plymouth Argyle W 1+ goals

83%

Plymouth Argyle W 2+ goals

52%

Plymouth Argyle W 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

Keynsham Town W (draw refunded)

47%

Plymouth Argyle W (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Keynsham Town W at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.80 · 5 matches

Plymouth Argyle W away — creates 1.71, concedes 2.29 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Keynsham Town W attack 1.00 + Plymouth Argyle W defence 2.29 → ÷2 → 1.65

Plymouth Argyle W attack 1.71 + Keynsham Town W defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 41%?"

Keynsham Town W scores more

37%

level

23%

Plymouth Argyle W scores more

41%

Plymouth Argyle W at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Plymouth Argyle W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff