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KeuPa vs Union Plaani — Suomen Cup 2018

KeuPa
KeuPa
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Union Plaani
Union Plaani
4/18/2025Suomen CupSuomen Cup · 3rd RoundTerva Tekonurmi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

KeuPa30%
×Draw21%
Union Plaani49%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

KeuPa
1.67
Union Plaani
2.17

Union Plaani creates 30% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 8 away

creates per match

KeuPa
1.33
Union Plaani
3.00

allows per match

KeuPa
1.33
Union Plaani
2.00

finishing

KeuPa+0.00on par
Union Plaani+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

KeuPa ↓

Union Plaani →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–25%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
53%47%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

KeuPa or draw
51%
KeuPa or Union Plaani
79%
Draw or Union Plaani
70%

Winning margin

KeuPa wins by 2+
14%
Union Plaani wins by 2+
29%

Team goals

KeuPa 1+ goals
81%
KeuPa 2+ goals
50%
KeuPa 3+ goals
23%
Union Plaani 1+ goals
89%
Union Plaani 2+ goals
64%
Union Plaani 3+ goals
36%

Draw no bet

KeuPa (draw refunded)
38%
Union Plaani (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

KeuPa at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

Union Plaani away — creates 3.00, concedes 2.00 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

KeuPa attack 1.33 + Union Plaani defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.67

Union Plaani attack 3.00 + KeuPa defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 2.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

KeuPa scores more
30%
level
21%
Union Plaani scores more
49%

Union Plaani at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Union Plaani will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Suomen Cup: KeuPa 1–2 Union Plaani

Union Plaani beat KeuPa 2-1 in Suomen Cup on April 18, 2025.

The match was played at Terva Tekonurmi in Keuruu.