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KeuPa vs JPS — Suomen Cup 2018

KeuPa
KeuPa
FT
0 – 2
JPS
JPS
2/12/2022Suomen CupSuomen Cup · 1st RoundLippumäen kuplahalli

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

KeuPa17%
×Draw26%
JPS57%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

KeuPa
0.67
JPS
1.50

JPS creates 124% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

creates per match

KeuPa
1.33
JPS
1.67

allows per match

KeuPa
1.33
JPS
0.00

finishing

KeuPa+0.00on par
JPS+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

KeuPa ↓

JPS →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–117%
0–213%
0–36%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–14%
2–23%
2–31%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

KeuPa or draw
43%
KeuPa or JPS
74%
Draw or JPS
83%

Winning margin

KeuPa wins by 2+
4%
JPS wins by 2+
30%

Team goals

KeuPa 1+ goals
49%
KeuPa 2+ goals
15%
KeuPa 3+ goals
3%
JPS 1+ goals
78%
JPS 2+ goals
44%
JPS 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

KeuPa (draw refunded)
22%
JPS (draw refunded)
78%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

KeuPa at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

JPS away — creates 1.67, concedes 0.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

KeuPa attack 1.33 + JPS defence 0.00 → ÷2 → 0.67

JPS attack 1.67 + KeuPa defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

KeuPa scores more
17%
level
26%
JPS scores more
57%

JPS at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "JPS will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Suomen Cup: KeuPa 0–2 JPS

JPS beat KeuPa 2-0 in Suomen Cup on February 12, 2022.

The match was played at Lippumäen kuplahalli in Kuopio.