Kestel Çilek 1–0 Çankaya FK: Result & Stats

Kestel Çilek

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Çankaya FK

S. Karakas 43'

1/25/2026

League #552 · Group 1 - 18

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Kestel Çilek35%

×Draw25%

Çankaya FK40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kestel ÇilekExpected goals in this matchÇankaya FK

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

1.44

Kestel Çilek

1.33

Çankaya FK

1.44

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 3 home / 19 away

1.33

creates per match

1.21

1.67

allows per match

1.32

creates per match

Kestel Çilek

1.33

Çankaya FK

1.21

allows per match

Kestel Çilek

1.67

Çankaya FK

1.32

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kestel Çilek+0.00on par

Çankaya FK+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kestel Çilek ↓

Çankaya FK →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Kestel Çilek or draw

60%

Kestel Çilek or Çankaya FK

75%

Draw or Çankaya FK

65%

Winning margin

Kestel Çilek wins by 2+

15%

Çankaya FK wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Kestel Çilek 1+ goals

74%

Kestel Çilek 2+ goals

38%

Kestel Çilek 3+ goals

15%

Çankaya FK 1+ goals

76%

Çankaya FK 2+ goals

42%

Çankaya FK 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Kestel Çilek (draw refunded)

47%

Çankaya FK (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kestel Çilek at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

Çankaya FK away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.32 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kestel Çilek attack 1.33 + Çankaya FK defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.33

Çankaya FK attack 1.21 + Kestel Çilek defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Kestel Çilek scores more

35%

level

25%

Çankaya FK scores more

40%

Çankaya FK at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Çankaya FK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

43'

S. Karakas

90+5'

F. Balaban

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff