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Kestel Çilek vs Beykoz İshaklıspor — League #552 2026

Kestel Çilek
Kestel Çilek
FT
2 – 3
HT: 1 – 0
Beykoz İshaklıspor
Beykoz İshaklıspor
B. Guntay 55'
H. Vardar 12'
B. Cakir 82'
E. Isik 50'
S. Ozmen 49' (pen)
11/9/2025League #552League #552 · Group 1 - 10

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Kestel Çilek38%
×Draw25%
Beykoz İshaklıspor37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kestel Çilek
1.42
Beykoz İshaklıspor
1.40

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 3 home / 8 away

creates per match

Kestel Çilek
1.33
Beykoz İshaklıspor
1.13

allows per match

Kestel Çilek
1.67
Beykoz İshaklıspor
1.50

finishing

Kestel Çilek+0.00on par
Beykoz İshaklıspor+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kestel Çilek ↓

Beykoz İshaklıspor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Kestel Çilek or draw
63%
Kestel Çilek or Beykoz İshaklıspor
75%
Draw or Beykoz İshaklıspor
62%

Winning margin

Kestel Çilek wins by 2+
18%
Beykoz İshaklıspor wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Kestel Çilek 1+ goals
76%
Kestel Çilek 2+ goals
41%
Kestel Çilek 3+ goals
17%
Beykoz İshaklıspor 1+ goals
75%
Beykoz İshaklıspor 2+ goals
41%
Beykoz İshaklıspor 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Kestel Çilek (draw refunded)
51%
Beykoz İshaklıspor (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kestel Çilek at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

Beykoz İshaklıspor away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.50 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kestel Çilek attack 1.33 + Beykoz İshaklıspor defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.42

Beykoz İshaklıspor attack 1.13 + Kestel Çilek defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Kestel Çilek scores more
38%
level
25%
Beykoz İshaklıspor scores more
37%

Kestel Çilek at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Kestel Çilek will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

12'
H. Vardar↳ B. Guntay
49'
S. OzmenPenalty
50'
E. Isik↳ G. Eser
55'
B. Guntay↳ N. Colak
82'
B. Cakir↳ G. Eser

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kestel Çilek vs Beykoz İshaklıspor

Beykoz İshaklıspor beat Kestel Çilek 3-2 in League #552 on November 9, 2025.

Goals: H. Vardar (12'), S. Ozmen (49' pen), E. Isik (50'), B. Guntay (55'), B. Cakir (82').