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Kerry vs Finn Harps — First Division 2019

Kerry
Kerry
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Finn Harps
Finn Harps
3/20/2026First DivisionFirst Division · Round 6Mounthawk Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 65+ matches

Kerry43%
×Draw26%
Finn Harps32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kerry
1.48
Finn Harps
1.23

Kerry creates 20% more chances

Season form · 65 home / 65 away

creates per match

Kerry
1.03
Finn Harps
0.95

allows per match

Kerry
1.51
Finn Harps
1.92

finishing

Kerry+0.00on par
Finn Harps+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kerry ↓

Finn Harps →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Kerry or draw
68%
Kerry or Finn Harps
74%
Draw or Finn Harps
57%

Winning margin

Kerry wins by 2+
21%
Finn Harps wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Kerry 1+ goals
77%
Kerry 2+ goals
43%
Kerry 3+ goals
19%
Finn Harps 1+ goals
71%
Finn Harps 2+ goals
35%
Finn Harps 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Kerry (draw refunded)
58%
Finn Harps (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kerry at home — creates 1.03, concedes 1.51 · 65 matches

Finn Harps away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.92 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kerry attack 1.03 + Finn Harps defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.48

Finn Harps attack 0.95 + Kerry defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Kerry scores more
43%
level
26%
Finn Harps scores more
32%

Kerry at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Kerry will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kerry vs Finn Harps

Kerry beat Finn Harps 1-0 in First Division on March 20, 2026.

The match was played at Mounthawk Park in Tralee.