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Kerry vs Athlone Town — First Division 2019

Kerry
Kerry
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Athlone Town
Athlone Town
2/20/2026First DivisionFirst Division · Round 2Mounthawk Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 65+ matches

Kerry42%
×Draw26%
Athlone Town33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kerry
1.46
Athlone Town
1.27

Kerry creates 15% more chances

Season form · 65 home / 119 away

creates per match

Kerry
1.03
Athlone Town
1.04

allows per match

Kerry
1.51
Athlone Town
1.88

finishing

Kerry+0.00on par
Athlone Town+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kerry ↓

Athlone Town →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Kerry or draw
67%
Kerry or Athlone Town
74%
Draw or Athlone Town
58%

Winning margin

Kerry wins by 2+
20%
Athlone Town wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Kerry 1+ goals
77%
Kerry 2+ goals
43%
Kerry 3+ goals
18%
Athlone Town 1+ goals
72%
Athlone Town 2+ goals
36%
Athlone Town 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Kerry (draw refunded)
56%
Athlone Town (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kerry at home — creates 1.03, concedes 1.51 · 65 matches

Athlone Town away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.88 · 119 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kerry attack 1.03 + Athlone Town defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.46

Athlone Town attack 1.04 + Kerry defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Kerry scores more
42%
level
26%
Athlone Town scores more
33%

Kerry at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Kerry will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First Division: Kerry 0–1 Athlone Town

Athlone Town beat Kerry 1-0 in First Division on February 20, 2026.

The match was played at Mounthawk Park in Tralee.