Kerkennah 2–0 Stade Gabesien: Result & Stats

Kerkennah

FT

2 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Stade Gabesien

3/1/2025

Ligue 2 · Round 17Stade d'Athlétisme 2 Mars 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Kerkennah44%

×Draw31%

Stade Gabesien25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KerkennahExpected goals in this matchStade Gabesien

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.15

0.78

Kerkennah

1.15

Stade Gabesien

0.78

Kerkennah creates 47% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 60 away

1.18

creates per match

0.73

0.84

allows per match

1.12

creates per match

Kerkennah

1.18

Stade Gabesien

0.73

allows per match

Kerkennah

0.84

Stade Gabesien

1.12

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kerkennah+0.00on par

Stade Gabesien+0.00on par

Total goals

Under70
Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No63
Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kerkennah ↓

Stade Gabesien →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–111%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

57%43%2.5

30%70%3.5

13%87%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Kerkennah or draw

75%

Kerkennah or Stade Gabesien

69%

Draw or Stade Gabesien

56%

Winning margin

Kerkennah wins by 2+

19%

Stade Gabesien wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Kerkennah 1+ goals

68%

Kerkennah 2+ goals

32%

Kerkennah 3+ goals

11%

Stade Gabesien 1+ goals

54%

Stade Gabesien 2+ goals

18%

Stade Gabesien 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Kerkennah (draw refunded)

64%

Stade Gabesien (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

24%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kerkennah at home — creates 1.18, concedes 0.84 · 38 matches

Stade Gabesien away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.12 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kerkennah attack 1.18 + Stade Gabesien defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.15

Stade Gabesien attack 0.73 + Kerkennah defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Kerkennah scores more

44%

level

31%

Stade Gabesien scores more

25%

Kerkennah at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Kerkennah will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff