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Kerkennah vs ES Hammam-Sousse — Ligue 2 2020

Kerkennah
Kerkennah
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
ES Hammam-Sousse
ES Hammam-Sousse
O. Dami 39' (pen)
A. Amdouni 31'
M. Nour 45'
4/27/2026Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 24

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Kerkennah41%
×Draw29%
ES Hammam-Sousse30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kerkennah
1.21
ES Hammam-Sousse
1.00

Kerkennah creates 21% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 44 away

creates per match

Kerkennah
1.18
ES Hammam-Sousse
1.16

allows per match

Kerkennah
0.84
ES Hammam-Sousse
1.23

finishing

Kerkennah+0.00on par
ES Hammam-Sousse+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kerkennah ↓

ES Hammam-Sousse →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Kerkennah or draw
70%
Kerkennah or ES Hammam-Sousse
71%
Draw or ES Hammam-Sousse
59%

Winning margin

Kerkennah wins by 2+
18%
ES Hammam-Sousse wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Kerkennah 1+ goals
70%
Kerkennah 2+ goals
34%
Kerkennah 3+ goals
12%
ES Hammam-Sousse 1+ goals
63%
ES Hammam-Sousse 2+ goals
26%
ES Hammam-Sousse 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Kerkennah (draw refunded)
57%
ES Hammam-Sousse (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kerkennah at home — creates 1.18, concedes 0.84 · 38 matches

ES Hammam-Sousse away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.23 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kerkennah attack 1.18 + ES Hammam-Sousse defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.21

ES Hammam-Sousse attack 1.16 + Kerkennah defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Kerkennah scores more
41%
level
29%
ES Hammam-Sousse scores more
30%

Kerkennah at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Kerkennah will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

31'
A. Amdouni
39'
O. DamiPenalty
45'
M. Nour

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kerkennah vs ES Hammam-Sousse

Kerkennah beat ES Hammam-Sousse 2-1 in Ligue 2 on April 27, 2026.

Goals: A. Amdouni (31'), O. Dami (39' pen), M. Nour (45').