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Kerkennah vs Bouselem — Ligue 2 2020

Kerkennah
Kerkennah
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Bouselem
Bouselem
A. Amdouni 45'
2/1/2026Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 16

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Kerkennah58%
×Draw27%
Bouselem14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kerkennah
1.40
Bouselem
0.54

Kerkennah creates 159% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 13 away

creates per match

Kerkennah
1.18
Bouselem
0.23

allows per match

Kerkennah
0.84
Bouselem
1.62

finishing

Kerkennah+0.00on par
Bouselem+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

69%No
  • No69
  • Yes31

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kerkennah ↓

Bouselem →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–18%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–020%
1–111%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (20%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Kerkennah or draw
86%
Kerkennah or Bouselem
73%
Draw or Bouselem
42%

Winning margin

Kerkennah wins by 2+
29%
Bouselem wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Kerkennah 1+ goals
75%
Kerkennah 2+ goals
41%
Kerkennah 3+ goals
17%
Bouselem 1+ goals
42%
Bouselem 2+ goals
10%
Bouselem 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Kerkennah (draw refunded)
80%
Bouselem (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
21%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kerkennah at home — creates 1.18, concedes 0.84 · 38 matches

Bouselem away — creates 0.23, concedes 1.62 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kerkennah attack 1.18 + Bouselem defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.40

Bouselem attack 0.23 + Kerkennah defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Kerkennah scores more
58%
level
27%
Bouselem scores more
14%

Kerkennah at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Kerkennah will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

45'
A. Amdouni

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligue 2: Kerkennah 1–0 Bouselem

Kerkennah beat Bouselem 1-0 in Ligue 2 on February 1, 2026.

Goals: A. Amdouni (45').