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Kerkennah vs Baath Bouhajla — Ligue 2 2020

Kerkennah
Kerkennah
FT
0 – 0
Baath Bouhajla
Baath Bouhajla
10/20/2024Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 1Stade d'Athlétisme 2 Mars 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Kerkennah45%
×Draw31%
Baath Bouhajla24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kerkennah
1.13
Baath Bouhajla
0.73

Kerkennah creates 55% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 13 away

creates per match

Kerkennah
1.18
Baath Bouhajla
0.62

allows per match

Kerkennah
0.84
Baath Bouhajla
1.08

finishing

Kerkennah+0.00on par
Baath Bouhajla+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Under
  • Under71
  • Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kerkennah ↓

Baath Bouhajla →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–111%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
55%45%2.5
29%71%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Kerkennah or draw
76%
Kerkennah or Baath Bouhajla
69%
Draw or Baath Bouhajla
55%

Winning margin

Kerkennah wins by 2+
19%
Baath Bouhajla wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Kerkennah 1+ goals
68%
Kerkennah 2+ goals
31%
Kerkennah 3+ goals
11%
Baath Bouhajla 1+ goals
52%
Baath Bouhajla 2+ goals
17%
Baath Bouhajla 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Kerkennah (draw refunded)
66%
Baath Bouhajla (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kerkennah at home — creates 1.18, concedes 0.84 · 38 matches

Baath Bouhajla away — creates 0.62, concedes 1.08 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kerkennah attack 1.18 + Baath Bouhajla defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.13

Baath Bouhajla attack 0.62 + Kerkennah defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Kerkennah scores more
45%
level
31%
Baath Bouhajla scores more
24%

Kerkennah at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Kerkennah will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligue 2: Kerkennah 0–0 Baath Bouhajla

Kerkennah and Baath Bouhajla drew 0-0 in Ligue 2 on October 20, 2024.

The match was played at Stade d'Athlétisme 2 Mars 2 in Safāqis.