Kerala Blasters 2–1 ATK: Result & Stats

Kerala Blasters

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

ATK

10/20/2019

Indian Super League · Round 1Jawaharlal Nehru International Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Kerala Blasters33%

×Draw26%

ATK41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kerala BlastersExpected goals in this matchATK

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.26

1.43

Kerala Blasters

1.26

ATK

1.43

ATK creates 13% more chances

Season form · 72 home / 10 away

1.61

creates per match

1.50

1.35

allows per match

0.90

creates per match

Kerala Blasters

1.61

ATK

1.50

allows per match

Kerala Blasters

1.35

ATK

0.90

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kerala Blasters+0.00on par

ATK+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kerala Blasters ↓

ATK →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Kerala Blasters or draw

59%

Kerala Blasters or ATK

74%

Draw or ATK

67%

Winning margin

Kerala Blasters wins by 2+

14%

ATK wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Kerala Blasters 1+ goals

72%

Kerala Blasters 2+ goals

36%

Kerala Blasters 3+ goals

13%

ATK 1+ goals

76%

ATK 2+ goals

42%

ATK 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Kerala Blasters (draw refunded)

45%

ATK (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kerala Blasters at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.35 · 72 matches

ATK away — creates 1.50, concedes 0.90 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kerala Blasters attack 1.61 + ATK defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.26

ATK attack 1.50 + Kerala Blasters defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Kerala Blasters scores more

33%

level

26%

ATK scores more

41%

ATK at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "ATK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff