Kenya W 0–2 Australia W: Result & Stats

Kenya W

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Australia W

C. Wheeler 55'

S. Kerr 25'

4/15/2026

Friendlies Women · Friendly International WomenNyayo National Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Kenya W40%

×Draw26%

Australia W34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kenya WExpected goals in this matchAustralia W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

1.25

Kenya W

1.39

Australia W

1.25

Kenya W creates 11% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 18 away

0.67

creates per match

1.17

1.33

allows per match

2.11

creates per match

Kenya W

0.67

Australia W

1.17

allows per match

Kenya W

1.33

Australia W

2.11

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kenya W+0.00on par

Australia W+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kenya W ↓

Australia W →

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Kenya W or draw

66%

Kenya W or Australia W

74%

Draw or Australia W

60%

Winning margin

Kenya W wins by 2+

19%

Australia W wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Kenya W 1+ goals

75%

Kenya W 2+ goals

40%

Kenya W 3+ goals

16%

Australia W 1+ goals

71%

Australia W 2+ goals

36%

Australia W 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Kenya W (draw refunded)

54%

Australia W (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Kenya W at home — creates 0.67, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

Australia W away — creates 1.17, concedes 2.11 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Kenya W attack 0.67 + Australia W defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 1.39

Australia W attack 1.17 + Kenya W defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 40%?"

Kenya W scores more

40%

level

26%

Australia W scores more

34%

Kenya W at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Kenya W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

25'

S. Kerr

46'

E. van Egmond← H. Raso

55'

C. Wheeler↳ C. Foord

57'

E. Mideva← A. Madalina

64'

64'

73'

77'

77'

H. McNamara← C. Foord

85'

I. Gomez← K. Torpey

85'

A. Chidiac← C. Wheeler

85'

R. Siemsen← S. Kerr

Kenya

Australia

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

57'▲E. Mideva←▼A. Madalina

64'▲E. Mango←▼L. Andiema

73'▲M. Airo←▼T. Engesha

Kenya W substitutes

4Mideva5Nambengele6Nyarinda10Serenge12Mumo14Akeyo17Mukhwana18Kundu19Airo22Shilwatso24Mango

Manager: Joseph Montemurro

46'▲E. van Egmond←▼H. Raso

77'▲C. Nevin←▼J. Rankin

77'▲H. McNamara←▼C. Foord

85'▲I. Gomez←▼K. Torpey

85'▲A. Chidiac←▼C. Wheeler

85'▲R. Siemsen←▼S. Kerr

Australia W substitutes

2Nevin4Nash10Egmond11Gomez12Lincoln13Chidiac18Aquino19McKenna25McNamara26Siemsen