Kenya 1–0 Equatorial Guinea: Result & Stats

Kenya

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Equatorial Guinea

5/28/2018

Friendlies · Friendlies 1Kenyatta Stadium (Machakos)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Kenya53%

×Draw28%

Equatorial Guinea19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KenyaExpected goals in this matchEquatorial Guinea

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

0.72

Kenya

1.40

Equatorial Guinea

0.72

Kenya creates 94% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 8 away

1.41

creates per match

0.63

0.82

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

Kenya

1.41

Equatorial Guinea

0.63

allows per match

Kenya

0.82

Equatorial Guinea

1.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kenya+0.00on par

Equatorial Guinea+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kenya ↓

Equatorial Guinea →

0–012%

0–19%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1–017%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2–012%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3–05%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Kenya or draw

81%

Kenya or Equatorial Guinea

72%

Draw or Equatorial Guinea

47%

Winning margin

Kenya wins by 2+

26%

Equatorial Guinea wins by 2+

Team goals

Kenya 1+ goals

75%

Kenya 2+ goals

41%

Kenya 3+ goals

17%

Equatorial Guinea 1+ goals

51%

Equatorial Guinea 2+ goals

16%

Equatorial Guinea 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Kenya (draw refunded)

73%

Equatorial Guinea (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Kenya at home — creates 1.41, concedes 0.82 · 17 matches

Equatorial Guinea away — creates 0.63, concedes 1.38 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Kenya attack 1.41 + Equatorial Guinea defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.40

Equatorial Guinea attack 0.63 + Kenya defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 53%?"

Kenya scores more

53%

level

28%

Equatorial Guinea scores more

19%

Kenya at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Kenya will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff