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Kenya Police vs Ushuru FC — Super League 2018

Kenya Police
Kenya Police
FT
0 – 3
Ushuru FC
Ushuru FC
7/15/2018Super LeagueSuper League · Super League - Round 23

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Kenya Police32%
×Draw30%
Ushuru FC38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kenya Police
1.00
Ushuru FC
1.13

Ushuru FC creates 13% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 16 away

creates per match

Kenya Police
1.25
Ushuru FC
1.38

allows per match

Kenya Police
0.88
Ushuru FC
0.75

finishing

Kenya Police+0.00on par
Ushuru FC+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kenya Police ↓

Ushuru FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–113%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Kenya Police or draw
62%
Kenya Police or Ushuru FC
70%
Draw or Ushuru FC
68%

Winning margin

Kenya Police wins by 2+
12%
Ushuru FC wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Kenya Police 1+ goals
63%
Kenya Police 2+ goals
26%
Kenya Police 3+ goals
8%
Ushuru FC 1+ goals
68%
Ushuru FC 2+ goals
31%
Ushuru FC 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Kenya Police (draw refunded)
45%
Ushuru FC (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kenya Police at home — creates 1.25, concedes 0.88 · 16 matches

Ushuru FC away — creates 1.38, concedes 0.75 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kenya Police attack 1.25 + Ushuru FC defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.00

Ushuru FC attack 1.38 + Kenya Police defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Kenya Police scores more
32%
level
30%
Ushuru FC scores more
38%

Ushuru FC at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Ushuru FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: Kenya Police 0–3 Ushuru FC

Ushuru FC beat Kenya Police 3-0 in Super League on July 15, 2018.